It must suck to be President in the last two years of your second term as the opposition takes over both houses of Congress and polls show that your popularity is on the decline, huh, President Bush. (Wait … What?)
Yesterday’s landslide victory for Republicans turns out to be part of a pretty common occurrence for two-term Presidents in America. It happened to both Presidents Clinton and Bush. So, President Obama has plenty of company.
The big question is, what happens now?
Historically, President had to deal with an impeachment but still managed to pass a law that permanently normalized trade relations with China. He also signed the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act to deregulate the financial industry, which gutted Glass-Steagall and contributed to the global financial collapse when the formally safe banks became quite vulnerable due to sketchy investments in shaky mortgages.
President Bush was still reeling from his disastrous handling of Hurricane Katrina aid, the debacle of the Iraq War and the global financial free-fall, so his last two years were generally spent in emergency mode.
Now, we have an improving economy, a dwindling debt, no major wars and no current national disasters. However, we do have a rapidly escalating climate crisis, a wreck of an immigration policy, a suicidal energy policy, and a disappearing middle class, among other issues. So, what’s the new Congress going to do?
- Some suggest a “business-friendly” GOP will work to dismantle financial regulations, like the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act. Trouble is, most Americans want extra protection after the near catastrophe of the last financial crisis.
- Others say Republican lawmakers are going to get to work on balancing the budget and tax reform. However, the GOP defines tax reform as lowering rates and clearing away restrictions of tax dodges. In other words, dramatically reducing money flowing into the Treasury. Anyone who thinks this is going to work should take a look at Kansas.
- Still others predict gridlock could get worse as the warring factions within the GOP start elbowing each other for their place at the table. As Republican activist James O’Keefe said, “The good news for Republicans is that they won. The bad news is they won.”
No one really knows how any of this will play out, but we can assume a few things:
- A hawk will be in charge of the Armed Services Committee as everyone assume John McCain will take over the chairmanship in January. Will that mean more defense spending? That will be interesting to watch from the “balanced budget” party that wants to cut federal revenues.
- As the NY Times writes, “In gaining control of the Senate, however, Republicans ousted some of the red-state Democrats most inclined to work with them, such as Senator Mark Pryor of Arkansas, reducing the number of potential Democratic allies.” So, even if the new majority strong-arms bills that President Obama kicks back to them, they essentially have no chance of overcoming a veto.
- Political strategist Greg Valliere noted several achievements during the last few years., including “a two-year, not a one-year, budget deal, a debt-ceiling increase, a bipartisan farm bill and a long overdue Veterans Administration bill.” But, will the least productive Congress in American history suddenly make a 180 and start working together to tackle America’s problems? (We thought you could use a laugh.)
All this means there’s no real indication of anything for government contractors or anyone else yet. Gridlock will probably get worse. The only difference is a lot of it may come from within the GOP. Pressure from special interests that paid through the nose to get their people elected will demand payback, which will distort legislation even more. And, in the midst of all of this, you can bet the competition for the 2016 Presidential race will resemble a carcass being tossed into a pack of wild dogs.
So, you wondered about the effect of the elections on government spending? Aren’t we all.
In non-election-related news …
- Anne Rung, Administrator of the Office of Federal Procurement Policy, said the Administration is working on new procurement tools … Speaking at the annual National Contract Management Association’s Government Contracting Symposium in Washington, D.C., on Nov. 4, Rung said that a greater effort is being made to partner with contractors. She cited recent meetings where contractors rated their experiences and efforts to increase the technical expertise of procurement specialists as examples of the government’s attempts to improve procurement. [Federal Times]
- The procurement chief also vowed to make contracting simpler … She said her office is “focusing on simplifying the contractor space to emphasize performance in achieving world-class customer service and cost savings.” She added, “The key to simplicity is greater collaboration and cooperation within agencies and between the acquisition workforce and industry.” Rung noted she learned a team approach growing up in a family with six kids who shared bicycles and bedrooms. [GovExec]
- Despite sequestration, GSA’s Alliant contract continues to grow … The massive contract that expedites agency purchases of a variety of IT products, including cloud-based email services, agencywide IT infrastructure and encryption enhancement software, spent $2.6 billion through Alliant in 2014, an increase of nearly 33 percent from the $1.96 billion spent last year. [Federal Times]
- The massive $6 billion Homeland Security initiative may bring an entirely new approach to cyber security – “self-healing” computers and networks … Citing the shortcomings of static security approaches like firewalls, Agency officials say government networks should be able to not only continuously detect hackers and throttle their destructive tactics — but also robotically bounce back. Self-healing is an dynamic response, sometimes called “active defense,” which can include sharing threat intelligence with potential targets in real time. [NextGov]
- Russia just keeps making friends … In response to recent Russian aggression, NATO member Poland invited manufacturers of short-range surface-to-air missiles for technical talks for a planned military revamp. Warsaw accelerated the plan after Russia annexed Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula in March and gave backing to pro-Moscow separatist rebels fighting in Ukraine’s east. [Defense News]
- Arab cooperation with the U.S.-led efforts against ISIL in Syria were made easier because of Arab nations’ years of purchases of made-in-America, high-tech, precision-guided bombs … Nearly all of the air strikes by U.S. and coalition militaries in Syria and Iraq have used precision bombs. [Defense One]
- Appeals Court judges are skeptical that NSA spying violates the Constitution … “A panel of three Republican-nominated judges on the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals challenged arguments made Tuesday by a conservative activist and civil-liberties groups that the National Security Agency’s mass-surveillance program represents a breach of the Fourth Amendment, which guards against unreasonable searches.” [NextGov]
- President Obama announced a number of key Administration appointments and nominations, including: [White House Press Release]
- David J. Berteau – Assistant Secretary of Defense for Logistics and Materiel Readiness, Department of Defense
- Leigh A. Bradley – General Counsel, Department of Veterans Affairs
- Mona Dixon – Member, Board of Directors of the Corporation for National and Community Service
- Mark Scarano – Federal Cochairperson, Northern Border Regional Commission
- The DoD’s push for open system architecture has been more talk than action so far, but that is about to change … According to senior Army and Navy procurement officials, advances in technology and business processes have made open architectures more practical to implement than they were a few years ago. Of course, are leaving the Pentagon with little choice. [Federal News Radio]
- For your feel-good contracting story of the day … AbilityOne is a little-publicized government purchasing program that buys products and services from community-based, nonprofit agencies dedicated to training and employment for more than 40,000 people with disabilities. [Federal Times]
- The federal judge overseeing the trial of the alleged head of the former deep-web cyber crime website, Silk Road … Has seen his personal information breached, had his computer hacked and has received death threats. Hmm, go figure. [ARS Technica]
Finally, mid-terms are never as exciting a elections during presidential years, however, yesterday still caused some voters to travel to some pretty odd places to fulfill their citizen responsibilities, like:
A Barber College
A Diner
A Martial Arts Studio
And, the Neptune Society’s Columbarium in San Francisco.
See you in 2016.